Last Updated on May 23, 2026 by Mr.Feng
This article is part of Experiment #001 — Iteration 3 prep. For the past six months, I’ve been researching one question: can you send Google Ads cold traffic directly to a SaaS affiliate landing page, with no funnel, no email sequence, no retargeting, and actually break even? Before putting another dollar into ads, I wanted to know if the math even holds up on paper. This is what I found.
[👉 See the full experiment context: Experiment #001]
Over the past six months I went from blindly burning $112 on Google Ads testing random affiliate offers and failing, to finally figuring out that recurring SaaS affiliate programs are the offer type that actually makes sense for Google Ads cold traffic. I also put together a list of programs I personally applied to and got approved for, specifically filtered for ones that don’t require a website or traffic proof to get in.
Now the next question hits: out of all the programs I’m already approved for, which ones are actually worth spending money to test?
My budget is tight. I have a full time job and I’m doing all of this purely in my spare time. I can’t afford to waste money on offers that have zero chance of working out.
But before I decide what to test, I need to answer a more fundamental question first. What are the minimum conditions that need to be true for this strategy to work mathematically?
Once I know that, I’ll know exactly what I’m looking for. This post is me working through that question on paper.
4 Parameters I Need to Define Before Running Any Numbers
Before I start working through the numbers on paper, I need to nail down four key parameters first: keyword CPC, monthly commission per user, subscription conversion rate, and months to break even.
Keyword CPC
Based on the recurring SaaS program list I found and got approved for through affiliate software footprints, I used Google Keyword Planner to research ad costs for relevant keywords, targeting the US market. Bottom of funnel keywords can run several dozen dollars per click.
Even long tail top of funnel keywords are generally sitting between $2 and $6.
I’m using the most conservative number, $2 CPC, so 100 clicks costs $200.
Monthly Commission Per User
Based on the same program list, these programs charge anywhere from $8 to $200 per month,
though the $200 plans are usually enterprise, premium or max tiers.
Commission rates typically run between 10% and 45%. I’m calculating based on the standard recommended plans, which works out to an estimated $1 to $40 in monthly commission per converted user.
Subscription Conversion Rate
This is the most critical and hardest parameter to estimate in this whole calculation. I can’t just throw out a random number, it needs to be grounded in real data.
The conversion chain has two steps. First, the user clicks the ad and signs up for a free trial. Second, they convert from the trial to a paying customer, which is when my commission actually triggers.
According to GrowthSpree’s 2026 analysis of 300+ B2B SaaS accounts, the median landing page conversion rate for B2B SaaS is 2.5% to 4%.(The landing page conversion rate here refers to the rate of visitors signing up for a free trial) As an affiliate with no brand authority, I use 2% as my conservative baseline. According to ChartMogul’s 2026 study of 200 SaaS products, the average opt-in free trial to paid conversion rate is 8%.
Multiply the two steps together: 2% × 8% = 0.16%, rounded up to 0.2%. I think this conversion rate is pretty close to what you’d actually see in the real world. This is the number I’m using as my real baseline conversion rate.
Months to Break Even
Months to break even = ad spend divided by monthly commission revenue. This is my ultimate criteria for deciding whether a program is worth testing.
So now let me work through the break even forecast using a mathematical model.
Google Ads and Recurring SaaS Affiliate: Break Even Projections at Different Conversion Rates
To get a fuller picture across different conditions, I put together 3 tables, each running the break even months calculation at a different conversion rate: 0.2%, 1%, and 3%. This way I can visually analyze and summarize what the numbers actually look like under each scenario.
Fixed conditions: CPC $2 · 100 clicks = $200 ad spend · Lifetime recurring commission
Monthly commission per user range: $1 to $40 (based on program list data)
Conversion Rate: 0.2% (Real Baseline)
| Monthly Commission / User | Monthly Commission Income | Months to Break Even | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1 | $0.20 | 1,000 months | Impossible |
| $5 | $1.00 | 200 months | Impossible |
| $10 | $2.00 | 100 months | Impossible |
| $20 | $4.00 | 50 months | Impossible |
| $30 | $6.00 | 33 months | Not viable |
| $40 | $8.00 | 25 months | Not viable |
At a 0.2% conversion rate, which is closest to reality, no commission level makes this strategy viable. Even at the highest commission of $40 per month, it still takes over 2 years just to break even. There is simply no way to run profitable Google Ads paid traffic targeting the US market at this rate.
Conversion Rate: 1%
| Monthly Commission / User | Monthly Commission Income | Months to Break Even | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1 | $1.00 | 200 months | Impossible |
| $5 | $5.00 | 40 months | Not viable |
| $10 | $10.00 | 20 months | Not viable |
| $20 | $20.00 | 10 months | Hard |
| $30 | $30.00 | 6.7 months | Marginal |
| $40 | $40.00 | 5 months | Possible |
Looking at this table, if the conversion rate hits 1%, a $40 monthly commission breaks even in 5 months, which looks pretty workable. But honestly, for cold traffic coming straight from Google Ads with no warm up, a 1% conversion rate is already a pretty optimistic assumption. It’s a tough ask.
Conversion Rate: 3%
| Monthly Commission / User | Monthly Commission Income | Months to Break Even | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1 | $3.00 | 67 months | Impossible |
| $5 | $15.00 | 13 months | Hard |
| $10 | $30.00 | 6.7 months | Marginal |
| $20 | $60.00 | 3.3 months | Good |
| $30 | $90.00 | 2.2 months | Very good |
| $40 | $120.00 | 1.7 months | Excellent |
At a 3% conversion rate even mid-level commissions start looking pretty decent. But based on my own experience running Google Ads paid traffic directly to affiliate programs with no funnel at all, without strong brand recognition and trust behind you, hitting that number is extremely unlikely.
What the Numbers Are Telling Me and Where I’m Going Next
Looking at these 3 tables honestly, the numbers are discouraging. But instead of walking away, I see 4 directions worth investigating.
1. Can I find recurring SaaS programs with relevant keywords under $1 CPC in the US market?
If CPC drops below $1, $200 buys 200 clicks instead of 100. The question is whether these keywords actually exist for any program on my list.
2. Can I find low CPC keywords outside the US, for programs that still have an audience there?
Markets like the UK, Australia, and Canada have the same language and intent, potentially at much lower CPCs. If the programs accept traffic from these markets, this could change the equation.
3. Can I find programs with monthly commissions above $40, ideally much higher, while keeping keyword CPC low?
The tables show clearly that higher commission changes everything. The challenge is finding programs that combine high commissions with low competition keywords.
4. Is Bing Ads CPC lower than Google Ads, and can it work for affiliate programs?
Bing Ads CPCs are generally 30% to 50% lower than Google for the same keywords. If that holds true, it could shift the math significantly.
These 4 directions are what I’m going to research and test next. Each one gets its own experiment and its own article.